关键词: 人口空间化, 格网尺度, 时空动态, 多源数据, 夜间灯光, 空间分析, 人口疏解, 北京市

Abstract:

High-precision spatially-explicit population data performs a quantitative reference for evaluating urban resources and environment pressure and promoting a rational population distribution. This study first classified and ranked street blocks of Beijing based on land use categories and VANUI index. Based on this, a hierarchical population spatialization model was built to generate the spatial distribution of population at 100 m resolution. In addition, Beijing permanent resident demographic information of 2012 and 2017, NPP/VIIRS nighttime lights data, land use, road networks, and other auxiliary data were also used as model inputs. In our study, the model simulation error against the verified data was less than 10%. Compared with other published results, the population distribution result generated in this study had a higher overall accuracy and local accuracy. We further analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of population in Beijing and its impact factors. Results show that the population of Beijing in each 100 m grid varied from -2564 to 1904, with -500~500 being the main change level. The spatial patterns of population in 2012 and 2017 both demonstrated that central Beijing was densely populated while Beijing suburb was sparsely populated. Between these two years, population of Beijing declined by approximately 210,000, which mainly happened in six main districts. The core functional area of Beijing had a remarkable reduction in population, accounting for 62% of the total population decline within the six districts of the city. In addition, population between the second and third ring of Beijing decreased the most, with nearly 110 000 people moved out, accounting for 52% of the population decline within the six districts. On the contrary, the population increased in the surrounding street blocks at the border of the six districts, which might form new population centers in the future. The spatial and temporal dynamics of Beijing's population were closely related to factors, such as the functional orientation of the capital, industrial upgrading and transformation, and the implementation of population redistribution policies. This study provides a scientific reference for the rational layout of Beijing's population space and formulation of Beijing's population redistribution policies in the future.

Key words: population spatialization, grid scale, spatio-temporal dynamics, multi-source data, nighttime light, spatial analysis, population redistribution, Beijing