关键词: 灾情评估, 快速评估, 空间推演, 历史相似案例, 地震, 伤亡人口, SRSHC模型, 空间相关程度

Abstract:

Earthquake is one of the most serious natural disasters for our human existence, and often causes huge losses. Disaster assessment based on similar historical cases is useful for disaster analysis and quick policy making when detailed real disaster data are not available. Based on the framework of the Assessment Method of Natural Disaster Based on Similarly Historical Cases (SHC model), this paper constructs the Spatial Reasoning of Similarly Historical Cases (SRSHC) model for earthquake casualty assessment, which considers the spatial relevance of historical cases to current disasters. We select earthquake magnitude, focal depth, and time of earthquake to describe the characteristics of an earthquake and use a similarity assessment model based on Manhattan distance to evaluate its similarity to historical cases. Besides, this paper introduces the distance of earthquake fault to quantify the spatial correlation between historical cases and current disaster. In this study, earthquake disasters with a magnitude of 4.0 or above in China from 2000 to 2013 are selected as historical cases. Three representative cases are chosen for accuracy verification, including the Yushu earthquake in Qinghai in 2010, the Lushan earthquake in Sichuan in 2013, and the Ludian earthquake in Yunnan in 2014. Results show that: (1) For the three verification cases, the accuracy of the SRSHC model is all above 95%, indicating that the model has certain feasibility and applicability in assessment of earthquake casualty; (2) Compared with the SHC model, the SRSHC model requires fewer participating cases but higher accuracy. For example, for the Yushu earthquake, when the number of participating cases is three, the accuracy of the SRSHC model reaches highest (97.92%). While the SHC model requires six participating cases to reach the highest accuracy (35.49%). It reveals that the spatial correlation between historical cases and the current disaster has a great impact on the evaluation of results; and (3) The accuracy of the disaster assessment model is related to the number of participating cases. When there are more than two participating cases, the accuracy of the model assessment decreases with increasing number of participating cases. When the number of participating cases is three or four, the accuracy of the SRSHC model is the highest. In conclusion, the advantages of the method developed this study are low cost, high efficiency, timely effectiveness, its simplicity, less constraint, and easy to implement, which has certain practical value and prospects in disaster assessment．

Key words: disaster assessment, rapid assessment, spatial reasoning, similar historical cases, earthquake, casualties, SRSHC model, spatial correlation