关键词: 土地利用变化, 中巴经济走廊, FLUS模型, SD模型, 模型耦合, 多情景, 模拟, 生态环境

Abstract:

Planning and construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is inseparable from the scientific cognition of the spatial patterns and changing processes of land resources and eco-environment in this area. Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) simulation can provide reliable prediction data for regional land resources management, eco-environment sustainability, and eco-environment risk assessment. In this paper, based on the coupled System Dynamics Model (SD) and future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS), combined with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor construction and regional eco-environment policies, various scenarios were set up to simulate the land use change of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, taking full advantages of the two models in macro land demand simulation and micro land allocation. Firstly, the SD-FLUS model was constructed and validated using the historical data of CPEC in 2009-2015. Then the land use changes from 2016 to 2030 under three different scenarios, namely Baseline Development (BD)scenario, Investment Priority Oriented (IPO) scenario, and Harmonious Development (HD) scenario, were simulated. Results show that: (1) The relative error of demand simulation was less than 9%, and the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of the simulation were over 90% against the actual land use data in 2015, which indicates the SD-FLUS coupling model effectively reflected the land use change pattern of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The model could be used for further simulation of land use changes in CPEC under different scenarios; (2) There are significant differences in simulated land use under different scenarios until 2030. Construction land expanded under all three scenarios but at different speeds. The expansion speed of HD scenario was in the middle. Under this scenario, the construction land in Kashgar and Pakistan increased by 235.17 km² and 4942.80 km², respectively. The expansion speed under the IPO scenario was the fastest, with the construction land in Kashgar increased by 265.23 km² and construction land in Pakistan increased by 5918.91 km². Under the BD scenario, the construction land in Kashgar and Pakistan increased by 163.71 km² and 2861.84 km², respectively. Under the HD scenario, increment of Pakistan's cultivated land area was less than half of that under BD scenario. Kashgar's cultivated land area increased the most in IPO scenario (about 882.54 km²), which was about three quarters of that in the HD scenario. The forest land was effectively restored only under the HD scenario. Generally, the HD scenario taking both social-economic development and eco-environment protection into account is the most ideal scenario among the three scenarios. Our simulation results can provide useful data support for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the assessment of eco-environment in the future.

Key words: Land use/cover change, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, FLUS model, SD model, model coupling, multi-scenario, simulation, eco-environment