关键词: 城市增长边界, 改进FLUS模型, 动态数据, 精度验证, 土地利用变化, 情景模拟, 用地适宜性评价, 长沙中心城区

Abstract:

Measuring the urban growth boundary is important to control the disorderly expansion of urban constructed land. How to define the urban growth boundary scientifically is a hot topic of current researches. This study attempts to introduce Baidu dynamic traffic data and POI data to improve the FLUS model to simulate land use changes. Taking the central of Changsha city as an example, the simulation accuracy of the improved FLUS model is first verified by comparing with the land use data of 2000, 2010, and 2018. Then, the land use of central Changsha in 2030 is simulated based on two scenarios using the improved FLUS model. The urban growth boundary is finally defined based on land suitability evaluation. The results show that: (1) Compared with the original FLUS model, the kappa coefficient of the improved FLUS model with dynamic data increases by 2.90% and 2.74% in 2010 and 2018, respectively, and the overall accuracy increases by 1.79% and 1.83%, respectively, which indicates a higher simulation accuracy of the improved model; (2) Based on the simulated land use of central Changsha in 2030, the area of constructed land is 930.06 km² and 881.36 km² respectively in benchmark scenario and ecological protection scenario. The largest proportion of land converted to construction land is cultivated land; (3) The area within the rigid growth boundary of central Changsha is 1479.59 km², accounting for 37.38% of the total area of the central city. These areas include Furong District, Tianxin District, Yuhua District, Yuelu District, and Kaifu District; (4) The area within the elastic growth boundary of central Changsha is 799.35 km² and 742.92 km² under the benchmark scenario and ecological protection scenario, respectively. The expanded construction mainly occurs in Changsha County and Wangcheng District, which is consistent with the development direction of 2010 Changsha urban master plan. The improved FLUS model with dynamic data can simulate the urban growth boundary in multiple scenarios, which provides a scientific basis for future planning decision.

Key words: urban growth boundary, improved FLUS model, dynamic data, accuracy verification, land use change, scenario simulation, land suitability evaluation, Changsha central city