关键词: 犯罪防控, 警务策略, 警务实验, 热点警务, 时空效益评估, 犯罪转移, 效益扩散, 加权位移商, 双重差分模型

Abstract:

Policing strategy of crime prevention is one of the important topics in crime geography.This paper systematically reviews the development and progress of policing strategy from three aspects: the characteristics of different types of crime prevention policing strategies, crime prevention experiments and the evaluation of crime prevention effectiveness. Our research shows that: ① Community policing, problem-oriented policing , hot spots policing and intelligent policing are the four main types of crime prevention policing strategies. Community policing takes the community as a unit and reduces crime through cooperation between the police and the local residents; Problem-oriented policing aims at identifying and solving social problems through a structured approach named SARA (Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment). Hot spots policing makes policing plan based on crime hot spots, and intervenes crime hot spots to reduce crime. Intelligent policing uses advanced technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence for more effective policing prevention. ② Crime prevention experiments compare the changes of crime before and after the intervention of police strategy between the experimental group and the control group. Most policing experiments are mainly focused on hot spots policing, which typically reduces crime in the experimental area, but may displace crime or diffuse the benefits of crime reduction to the neighboring areas; ③ Traditional police prevention evaluation mainly considers three aspects: detection rate, public security perception and social and economic benefit. To evaluate the effect of crime displacement or benefits diffusion, scholars put forward Weighted Displacement Quotient (WDQ), Spatio-Temporal Weighted Displacement Quotient (STWDQ), Difference in Differences (DID), Propensity Score Matching (PSM),integration of DID and PSM（PSM-DID）and DID-based quadrant method to measure the space-time benefits of policing strategies. In sum,while there exist abundant international research on policing strategy about crime prevention and evaluation of their space-time benefit such research in China still remain in its infancy. In the end, this paper further discusses the direction of future research on China's policing strategy.

Key words: crime prevention, policing strategy, policing experiment, hot spots policing, evaluation of spatio-temporal effectiveness, crime displacement, benefits diffusion, weighted displacement quotient, difference-in-differences model