中文摘要:

      研究目的：摸清中国耕地非粮化的总体态势,揭示非粮化的空间分异及其成因,为耕地保护和粮食安全提供技术支撑。研究方法：空间自相关分析法、多重共线性诊断与多元回归分析方法。研究结果：①2019年耕地非粮化面积约为54.47×10 hm2,占耕地总面积的32.29%；②非粮化面积主要集中于中南部和北部,但高非粮化率主要集中于新疆和东南沿海。非粮化面积与非粮化率呈现不同的显著空间集聚特征；③乡村劳动力、土地流转面积、人均耕地面积、农业机械总动力与非粮化面积呈显著正相关,共同驱动了全国非粮化的空间格局。但不同区域的驱动力差异,乡村劳动力是驱动中部地区非粮化的最重要因子,土地流转面积、城乡居民可支配收入比与农业机械总动力则分别是东部、西部和东北地区非粮化主要驱动因子。研究结论：非粮化涉及国家粮食安全和多方切身利益,必须高度重视并谨慎对待。今后应严格控制非粮化总量、摸清存量、遏制增量,不断加大农业基础设施投入、差别化扶持、有序引导种植意愿,不断规范多方流转行为、压实责任,明确战略,为细化和调整当前惠农政策和耕地保护策略提供科学依据。

English Summary:

      The purpose of this study is trying to find out how is the overall situation that the cultivated land converted to non-grain conversion in China, while the spatial differentiation pattern and causes of this conversion were revealed. This investigation also could provide technical supports for cultivated land protection and food security. Several methods have been used in this research, such as spatial autocorrelation analysis, multi-collinearity diagnosis and multiple regression analysis. The results show as follows: (1) the area of cultivated land non-grain conversion has reached 54.47 × 106 hm2 in 2019, which accounts for 32.29% of total cultivated area in China. (2) The area of cultivated land non-grain conversion is mainly concentrated in the central and northeast of China, whereas the non-conversion areas with high rate are concentrated in the Xinjiang and southeast coastal areas. The area and the rate of cultivated land non-grain conversion present the different characteristics of significant spatial agglomeration. (3) The factors, such as rural labor forces, land turnover rate, per capita cultivated land area and total power of agricultural machinery, are significantly positively correlated with cultivated land non-grain conversion, which drives the spatial pattern of national cultivated land into non-grain conversion. However, different regions show the different driving forces. For example, rural labor force is the key factor to drive the central region"s non-grain conversion. Land circulation area, disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents, and the total power of agricultural machinery are the main driving factors of the eastern, western and northeast regions’ non-grain conversions, respectively. The conclusions of this study are that, the non-grain conversion is related to national food security and vital interests of many parties, then great attention and caution must be put on it. In the future, we must strictly control the total amount, find out the stock and suppress the increment of non-grain conversion. On one side, some measures, such as increasing investment in agricultural infrastructure, providing differentiated supports, and guiding the willingness to grow in an orderly manner, should be kept on. On the other side, some policies including constantly standardize the multi-party circulation behavior, compaction responsibility, and defining the strategy, must be strengthened. All the above work will provide the scientific basis for refining and adjusting the current policies for agriculture benefit and cultivated land protection.