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考虑到地基沉降预测模型中参数的时变特性及预测结果的可靠性,本文提出地基沉降概率预测方法:运用贝叶斯动态模型建立地基沉降过程的状态方程和观测方程,利用参数先验信息并结合含有噪声的前期沉降观测数据,对沉降状态参数进行Bayes后验概率推断,通过不断的"概率预测-修正"递推运算,获得最优沉降状态概率估计来预测地基沉降量。数值实例结果表明,与其他预测方法相比较,本文的方法是可行有效的。 

Taking into account the time-varying characteristics of parameters in foundation settlement prediction model and the reliability of prediction result,the paper proposed the probability method of foundation settlement predication.State equation and observation equation of foundation settlement were established by using Bayesian dynamic model.Combining parameters prior information with the early settlement observation data containing noise,the settlement state parameters were deduced with Bayes Po...