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通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。

In this paper,dynamic model is used to predict energy,cement carbon emissions and forest carbon sink in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province from 2009 to 2050.First of all,the carbon emissions of energy and carbon emissions of cement are estimated,then the forest carbon sinks are taken into carbon account of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province.Secondly,the spatial patterns of carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province are analyzed.The main conclusions of this paper are as following:firs...